Security Needs, Risk Assessment, and Public Opinion: How Audience Cost Interacts with Foreign Intervention Policies

An important puzzle of international security and foreign policy is quantifying the predictors and precipitators of direct military intervention. Investigating four case studies of symmetrical armed conflicts, interventions, and one case of non-intervention, I find that nations authorize an invasion if a provable security interest exists in doing so, the material capacity appears to favor the invading state, and audience cost (the capability a political constituency can influence government actions with negative feedback) is low. The US is expected to have high audience cost while USSR and China are expected to have low audience costs.I thought it would be really funny to post my capstone political science research here. And yes I cited my sources, no raw-dogging it here.